FRED WIT-MORTGAGE LOAN ORIGINATOR
FINANCIAL SERIVCES & ADVISOR

February 27 2026

Home price appreciation pulled back slightly at the end of last year, according to December data from both FHFA and S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller. The reports reinforce the message that prices continued to appreciate modestly through the end of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index shows home prices up 1.8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 0.8% quarter-over-quarter . On a monthly basis, prices rose just 0.1% in December , suggesting continued but subdued momentum. On a 3-month basis (which helps smooth out month-to-month volatility while still capturing more granular movement), appreciation has recovered from the early 2025 dip and is back in a normal pre-pandemic range. State- and regional-level data underscore the ongoing divergence. House prices rose in 41 states over the past year, led by North Dakota (+6.4%), Delaware (+6.3%), Illinois (+6.1%), Wisconsin (+5.7%), and Michigan (+5.5%). Florida posted the largest annual decline (-2.7%). Among census divisions, the East North Central region led with a 5.0% annual gain, while the Mountain division recorded a slight decline (-0.2%). The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 1.3% year-over-year gain in December, down slightly from 1.4% previously and marking the weakest full-year performance since 2011. After seasonal adjustment, the national index rose 0.4% month-over-month . The 20-City Composite showed a 1.4% annual gain , unchanged from the prior month, and increased 0.5% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

February 20 2026

If there's one housing market metric that paints a brighter picture than the rest, it's New Home Sales data from the Census Bureau. At 745,000, it eased slightly from an upwardly-revised annual rate of 758,000 , but was higher then the pre-revision reading of 737k, and 3.8% above December 2024’s 718,000. Fairly chunky revisions are par for the course with this data. The chart below shows pre-revision numbers (thus the slight uptick with the current release). For-sale inventory fell to 472,000 , down 2.7% from November and 3.5% lower than a year ago. At the current sales pace, that represents a 7.6-month supply , slightly below November’s 7.7 months and down from 8.2 months in December 2024. While supply remains elevated compared to the tightest periods of the past cycle, it continues to trend lower as sales hold firm. Prices moved higher on a monthly basis but showed mixed signals year-over-year. The median sales price rose to $414,400 (+4.2% MoM; -2.0% YoY), while the average price edged up to $532,600 (+0.5% MoM; +4.7% YoY). The divergence suggests a continued tilt toward higher-end transactions lifting the average. 2025 Total Sales: 679,000 (down 1.1% from 2024’s 686,000) Inventory (YoY): -3.5% Months’ Supply (YoY): -7.3% Prior Month Context: November sales were up 15.5% from October’s revised 656,000

February 20 2026

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) slipped modestly in January, easily prolonging its stay in a narrow range near all-time lows. Pending home sales decreased 0.8% month over month and were down 0.4% compared with the same time last year. While affordability conditions have improved somewhat as mortgage rates trend closer to 6%, the improvement has failed to bolster contract activity. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that lower rates have expanded the pool of mortgage-eligible households, potentially adding hundreds of thousands of new buyers this year. However, he cautioned that without a meaningful increase in housing supply, additional demand could simply push prices higher and renew affordability pressure. The Midwest and West posted monthly gains, while the Northeast and South declined. On a yearly basis however, the picture changes, with the South and West slightly positive and the Northeast and Midwest down from a year ago—reinforcing the fact that sales activity remains uneven and regional. Regional Breakdown (Month-Over-Month) Northeast: −5.7% Midwest: +5.0% South: −4.5% West: +4.3% Regional YoY Change Northeast: −8.3% Midwest: −3.3% South: +4.0% West: +0.3%